Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 75419.718524 79700.732233 83984.920097 88590.846264 93399.449082 98268.379786 103567.894613
2025-03-16 67809.195861 74309.785483 81002.834794 88399.252291 96333.936283 104580.571570 113789.426231
2025-03-23 63471.479488 71562.593639 80079.550259 89692.801785 100221.016502 111379.971908 124080.824912
2025-03-30 59886.558493 69157.146692 79098.163541 90517.626785 103238.477983 116938.990810 132775.057082
2025-04-06 56522.000863 66674.618135 77741.265802 90651.183531 105246.856428 121185.568329 139854.386726
2025-04-13 53539.898144 64392.040206 76398.302494 90600.147920 106870.602228 124858.131423 146174.882496
2025-04-20 51748.951004 63326.223770 76305.594268 91848.551181 109864.497280 129997.497764 154101.534646
2025-04-27 50154.519316 62374.875509 76244.949293 93044.424490 112726.781966 134939.792096 161782.258739
2025-05-04 48391.351360 61122.422628 75743.340855 93644.813983 114832.306299 138966.978000 168386.856415
2025-05-11 46478.535336 59596.627532 74834.723035 93687.180560 116218.380245 142111.979255 173938.413360
2025-05-18 44838.597230 58322.895288 74156.639538 93939.555509 117799.908194 145449.171185 179696.834109
2025-05-25 43264.481517 57060.524185 73430.229171 94076.832572 119197.561726 148538.019928 185147.686951
2025-06-01 42341.882274 56581.320514 73644.455027 95357.618650 121993.227242 153332.968126 192704.521336
2025-06-08 40724.536817 55175.418109 72671.630298 95143.085125 122944.367587 155905.926373 197606.948234
2025-06-15 39984.340950 54843.760856 73000.858213 96513.571018 125822.571835 160805.715214 205338.184744
2025-06-22 39059.721679 54237.249246 72953.473413 97388.334519 128073.606143 164942.063724 212159.280479
2025-06-29 37852.269451 53221.112362 72350.000148 97529.942986 129388.010584 167920.083997 217567.599576
2025-07-06 36624.949095 52136.164147 71620.066417 97475.766933 130429.245495 170545.087899 222539.050504
2025-07-13 36073.411162 51917.929658 71982.789059 98800.330060 133200.542490 175315.981264 230183.947606
2025-07-20 35529.191952 51686.938145 72311.331825 100068.974369 135898.229530 180004.737287 237753.408667
2025-07-27 34747.501824 51109.941496 72165.817270 100705.830532 137779.751877 183673.332708 244065.202570
2025-08-03 33759.863593 50222.792831 71585.005636 100750.768640 138883.482994 186355.462891 249143.912195
2025-08-10 32907.830751 49494.235561 71190.123789 101018.457645 140260.005742 189377.131309 254658.284595